Soaring costs for food staples in import-dependent Middle East countries are stretching people's resilience to 'breaking point', says World Food Programme
Yemenis displaced by fighting receive food aid and supplies to meet their basic needs at a camp in Hays district in Hodeidah province on 29 March, 2022 (AFP)
Soaring costs for food staples in import-dependent Middle East and North African countries are stretching people's resilience to a "breaking point", with Russia's invasion of Ukraine adding to their woes, a United Nations agency has warned.
The UN's World Food Programme (WFP) said in a statement on Thursday that Russia's offensive had contributed to surging costs of flour and vegetable oil ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan - when people across the region typically gather in the evening for meals with friends and family to break the daily fast.
"We are extremely concerned about the millions of people in this region who are already struggling to access enough food because of a toxic combination of conflict, climate change and the economic aftermath of Covid-19," said Corinne Fleischer, WFP's regional director for the Middle East and North Africa.
"This crisis is creating shock waves in the food markets that touch every home in this region. No one is spared."
According to the agency, the cost of the basic food basket in Lebanon - the minimum amount of food a family needs per month - has soared by 351 percent in the past year.
Meanwhile, Syria saw a 97 percent hike, while in Yemen the cost of a basic food basket increased by 81 percent in the past year. The three countries, all reliant on food imports, also reported sharp currency depreciation.
Russia and Ukraine produce about a quarter of the world's wheat. The MENA region is particularly dependent on wheat imports from Black Sea ports, which have halted shipping since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Lebanon imports 52 percent of its wheat from Russia. As a result of the blast at the Beirut port in August 2020 which destroyed city's grain silos, the country's infrastructure can only hold about one month's supply of wheat.
Syria relies heavily on Russia for its wheat supplies, and domestic production has decreased drastically from its pre-war level.
Damascus has maintained that its wheat supplies are sufficient, and denied reports there were any issues with food supplies. But the country's Council of Ministers announced earlier this month that public spending would be slashed, and basic goods such as wheat and oil would be rationed in anticipation of supply shocks.
Meanwhile, fears are growing among aid agencies over the possible impact a disruption to wheat supplies will have on Yemen, which imports more than 30 percent of its wheat from Russia.
"The Ukraine crisis makes a bad funding situation worse. There are immediate humanitarian needs that demand attention. Donors have in recent years helped us provide food to millions in the region," said Fleischer.
"Now the situation is critical and it's time to be even more generous."
Palestinian laborers from the occupied territories fear for their livelihood as Israeli authorities and vigilante groups try to block their employment.
Palestinian workers wait at the Erez crossing in Beit Hanun, in the northern Gaza Strip, as they wait to enter Israel for work, March 13, 2022. (Attia Muhammed/Flash90)
Following the series of deadly stabbing and shooting attacks in the Israeli cities of Be’er Sheva, Hadera, and Bnei Brak over the past week, which have killed 11 people, there have been growing calls in Israel to stop the employment of Palestinian workers in the country. These voices are coming primarily from right-wing activists, but not exclusively: municipal authorities and other public bodies have also announced that they will be preventing the entry of Palestinian workers from the occupied territories.
The policy — which is being justified as a security measure, but is effectively a form of collective punishment against Palestinians — has been gaining traction in recent days, though it’s hard to know how long it will last.
Amjad, 29, who asked not to use his surname out of concern for his status and safety, has a permit to work in a large factory in the city of Kiryat Malachi near Ashdod. According to him, the manager of the factory where he works, out of concern for their welfare, asked the Palestinian workers on Wednesday morning to go back home. “Our manager is a decent person,” said Amjad. “He said we should leave for our own safety, but promised to continue paying us, even while we’re not working.”
Amjad described how when he arrived at the bus station shortly afterward at 9 a.m., he encountered a group of Israelis people waiting to attack Palestinian workers. “They chased after us, swearing and shouting at us,” he said. “Other friends who were there said that the group went from car to car checking who is Arab and who is not.” Amjad went back to the factory, where some 50 other Palestinian workers are now stuck, unable to return home. “The manager said he would order a bus tomorrow to pick us up.”
A poster reading “Don’t endanger the neighbors, Don’t employ Arabs!” at the site of a shooting attack by a Palestinian gunman from the West Bank, in Bnei Brak, March 30, 2022. (Oren Ziv)
In at least two locations on Wednesday morning, a small number of right-wing activists tried to physically block the passage of Palestinian workers into Israel. A Telegram group was set up for this purpose, named “Blocking Checkpoints/Entries for Palestinians,” calling on activists to come to those locations. “I decided not to come to work in Israel today,” said Nasser, a resident of Yatta in the South Hebron Hills. “The situation is very frightening.”
‘I did not come to work out of fear’
Wael, 32, works at a slaughterhouse in Kiryat Malachi. For the past two years, he explained, he has entered Israel every morning without a work permit by crossing through a breach in the separation barrier near the Meitar checkpoint. “Now the police are everywhere, looking for workers without a permit, and I have no way to get home,” he said. “They’re doing search operations in the city, setting up roadblocks for workers. This morning they closed a breach in the Meitar crossing, and I’m stuck.”
Wael said he entered Israel illegally because he is on the authorities’ “no-entry” list and is unable to obtain a work permit; he believes that he was placed on this list after filming Israeli soldiers destroying homes in Palestinian villages in the West Bank.
The Civil Administration — the arm of the Israeli military that governs the occupied territories — issues about 80,000 work permits for Palestinians from the West Bank to work inside the state, and about 30,000 to work in Israel’s West Bank settlements. A further 12,000 workers receive approval to enter from the Gaza Strip. About 40,000 additional Palestinian workers are also estimated to be entering Israel without a permit.
Israeli soldiers stand guard near a hole in the security barrier, near Mevo Horon, March 30, 2022. (Yossi Aloni/Flash90)
There are dozens of gaps in Israel’s separation barrier, and it is an open secret that the army has so far deliberately left them open — both because Israel wants Palestinians to do the low-paying, manual labor jobs that Jewish-Israelis are not willing to do, and because the Israeli defense establishment believes that the employment of Palestinian workers in Israel contributes to stability in the West Bank. Palestinian workers without permits, however, are not entitled to social rights, thus enabling rampant exploitation.
On regular days, one can see many Palestinians easily crossing through gaps in the barrier while soldiers passively look on. “Even people who have a permit enter through these gaps in order to spare themselves from the queues at the checkpoint,” said Wael.
But that situation seems likely to change, at least for the time being. The police announced yesterday that they had launched a large-scale operation to detain Palestinian workers staying in the country without permits, and the army has closed and set up ambushes at several points along the separation barrier which until now were open to workers.
Police spokespersons in the Naqab/Negev region, for example, said that they arrested 49 Palestinians from the West Bank who had entered Israel without permits, and that criminal proceedings had been launched against businesses that employed Palestinians without a permit. They also called on the public “to employ only those who carry work permits, and to report any suspicious incidents.”
Palestinian workers cross into Israel through a hole in the security barrier near the West Bank city of Hebron, July 25, 2021. (Wisam Hashlamoun/Flash90)
Mohammad, another Palestinian worker, told +972 that he, too, was stuck at his workplace. “I am afraid to take the bus home,” he said. “There are groups of Jews roaming the streets looking for Arabs. Taxi drivers are refusing to drive workers without permits back to the West Bank, because they’re worried the police will catch them.” Noting this, the Palestinian Trade Federation issued a statement yesterday urging Palestinian workers to be especially cautious of potential attacks against them inside Israel.
“I’m 55 years old, and I’ve been working in Israel since the age of 16,” said Musa, a resident of Hebron. “Today may be the first time I did not come to work out of fear. I was supposed to work in the home of a woman who lives alone, but I didn’t dare to go. Many other workers have made the same decision. It’s hard. Because here, in the West Bank, there’s no work and there’s no money.”
A policy that ‘can’t hold up for long’
The Renovation Contractors Association stated yesterday that, since the early hours of the morning, dozens of inquiries had been received from clients requesting that Palestinian workers not be allowed to enter their homes to carry out their work — they even opened a hotline due to the volume of requests. “Since this morning, many construction contractors have reported that Palestinian workers are [also] asking not to come to work this morning,” said Eran Siv, chairman of the association. He added that the association expects delays in the delivery of work projects ahead of the Passover holiday.
A number of mayors of Israeli cities have ordered contractors to freeze construction work in order to avoid employing Palestinians during this period. The Mayor of Ramat Gan, Carmel Shama HaCohen, wrote on Facebook that he is asking all contractors in the city to shut down their construction sites which “rely on Arab workers.” The Mayor of Ashdod announced that the municipality and the police will conduct inspections of construction sites in the city.
Palestinians work at a housing construction site in the Jewish settlement of Har Homa in East Jerusalem, Nov 26, 2009. (Kobi Gideon/Flash90)
Assaf Adiv, the director of the Ma’an Workers’ Association, a trade union that organizes Palestinian and Israeli workers, said that in the last four months Israel has allowed an unprecedented entry of Palestinian workers through breaches in the separation barrier. “It was an attempt to enable economic stabilization and alleviate financial distress after the coronavirus [pandemic],” said Adiv.
“For a decade there’s been no political solution on the horizon whatsoever, and the message to Palestinians is that the current situation is the final situation,” he continued. “But trying to maneuver between closing and opening the breaches in the barrier is not a policy that can hold up for long. There are five million people here without basic human rights.”
In a statement on Wednesday, the IDF spokesperson said: “This morning, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi led an operational assessment in light of recent events and following the decision to fortify the Seam Line and the Judea and Samaria area with additional forces… The IDF will offer the Israeli police extensive assistance, including assigning 15 companies from soldiers who are in special forces training, some of which will assist in the defense of the Seam Zone and some of which will be deployed in major cities.”
Some 60 Palestinians were killed and many more were injured when Israeli snipers attacked a Gaza protest on 14 May 2018.
Mahmoud AjourAPA images
Hamza Abu Eltarabesh - 29 March 2022
Recently, I changed.
I turned into someone who liked isolation. I didn’t eat or sleep as much as before.
Simply, I was not Hamza. Even my passion for writing and storytelling had become more chore than joy.
Luckily, I have a friend I could turn to for help.
Noor Siam is a psychiatrist. He helped me through my depression.
Some very difficult months have passed and I am beginning to live my life normally now.
But we did not see eye to eye on everything. Noor’s diagnosis was that I had suffered trauma during the major Israeli assault on Gaza of May 2021 and that caused my depression.
Now, I don’t want to minimize the May attack in any way. As it always does, the Israeli military attacked with the immense power at its disposal – and with the immense help of weapons supplied by the US and other Western countries.
Whole neighborhoods were flattened and entire families were obliterated. Israel killed more than 250 people over those 11 days and left 2,000 injured.
But I did not find that this was the source of my own subsequent depression. Instead, I searched further back, looked deep into myself and found what I am convinced was my own breaking point.
That moment came almost four years ago. The date was 14 May 2018 – during the Great March of Return.
Even though I am still alive, I call 14 May 2018, “the day I died.”
Banging on our prison walls
I was a strong supporter of the March of Return, which began in late March 2018 – four years ago now.
I firmly believe in my family’s right to go home to al-Majdal Asqalan, the village we come from.
Today Ashkelon lies on its ruins. The village was seized by the Israeli military in November 1948, with its inhabitants expelled to Gaza.
My grandparents were among those expelled.
The weekly mass protests at Gaza’s boundary with Israel that started in March 2018 were led by ordinary people demanding their right of return. The protests were a true expression of the popular will.
They were a desperate yet organized attempt by Palestinians in Gaza, of whom two-thirds are refugees, to shine a light on their plight and demand, after 70 years, that they finally are treated equally. International law recognizes our right of return; we were demanding that the law be respected.
The Great March of Return was also aimed at breaking Israel’s draconian blockade on Gaza that has seen the area’s more than two million people sink ever deeper into poverty, with prospects for any kind of future undermined at every turn by an Israeli-imposed inability to build, trade or travel.
Gaza is a prison and its prisoners had enough.
The Great March of Return was also met by brutal force from Israel.
I witnessed that brutal force directly.
On 14 May 2018, I joined the Great March of Return in Malaka, an area east of Gaza City.
Malaka was where most people would gather for the protests. There, protesters would divide into three groups.
The first group included older people. It would venture within around 800 meters of the fence. The role of this group was to chant slogans demanding our rights.
The second group was the main one. It would go a bit further toward the fence and stop around 500 meters from it.
That group would hold up posters and chant slogans. Their slogans would emphasize that protesters were unarmed.
“Death distance”
The final group took the biggest risks. It went close to the fence – between 200 and 50 meters from it.
In Gaza such proximity is known as the “death distance.” Everyone in the final group could be shot by Israel’s snipers.
On 14 May 2018, I was in that group.
I had walked slowly until I was about 200 meters from the fence. Then I sat down, alone.
There, I observed young protesters approaching the area I had reached.
On the Israeli side of the fence, I could see at least 12 tents, set up on dunes. Each tent had four snipers in it.
I had been sitting down for around an hour when suddenly, people started running toward the boundary fence.
A huge number of people.
I, too, started to run towards the fence.
Very soon – within a minute – I heard the sound of gunfire. It was immediately apparent that Israel’s snipers were killing people, even though there was a cloud of dust from all the bullets coming in our direction.
The dust disappeared after a few minutes. And I knew that I had witnessed a massacre.
There were 10 dead bodies near me. And more than 100 people who had been injured.
One man had his leg blown off.
A child had a bullet in his chest. He was dying.
A woman was screaming.
I was in a state of deep shock. I tried to think about what I should do next.
Should I run toward the fence and confront the snipers? Or should I help the paramedics?
I did nothing. I stood there, doing nothing.
Just crying like a baby.
I felt helpless.
Constructive criticism
Some 60 people were killed by Israel on 14 May 2018.
It was also the last time I took part in the Great March of Return.
Although I fully support the objectives of these protests, the horror I had witnessed meant I could no longer attend them. It was abundantly clear that Israel is willing to kill Palestinians en masse even when we engage in unarmed protest.
Four years on from the date when the Great March of Return began, I think it is important to discuss these protests objectively.
Ahmed Abu Artema, a key organizer of the protests, takes constructive criticism seriously. He has written an article, which indicates that he agrees with some of my criticisms.
The first criticism I have is that there was not sufficient strategic planning for the Great March of Return. The events of 14 May 2018 proved that.
Expectations were high on that date.
It was the eve of Nakba Day, which commemorates the 1948 ethnic cleansing of Palestine. There was a determination to assert our right of return to the homes from which we and our families had been expelled by Zionist forces.
Yet the protest had not been properly planned. Young people ran toward the fence impulsively and, as we know, the Israeli response proved lethal for so many.
Another mistake was that Hamas was too prominent in the Great March of Return, particularly in the media activities surrounding it. That placed pressure on Hamas – pressure for which it was not really prepared.
As the protests involved unarmed resistance, I think they would have been more effective if they were truly independent of political factions.
Creativity
One positive development of recent years is that Palestinians have shown greater creativity in how they resist the Israeli occupation.
The Great March of Return has contributed to that creativity. For example, the tactic of “night confusions” was inspired by these protests.
In June 2018 – one month after witnessing the massacre – I spent an evening with a man who calls himself Barq. He is a leading player in the use of “night confusions.”
There are two stages in a “night confusion.”
The first takes place about an hour before sunset when young men attach an incendiary device to a helium-filled balloon. Provided the wind is blowing from the west to the east, the young men will then release the balloon into the sky.
That means the balloon should be carried into Israel.
The second stage takes place roughly four hours later. It consists of letting off fireworks.
There are nine groups of young men in northern Gaza who have used the tactic of “night confusions.” Barq leads two of these groups.
Barq told me that the “night confusions” are planned in detail. He and his comrades discuss arrangements with armed resistance groups.
The plan is to inflict damage on Israeli agricultural land. So Barq and his comrades gather information about such matters as the season when crops are planted and harvested.
“We know exactly when to attack,” he said. “This activity is meant to disturb people who live next to the Gaza Strip. We launch the balloons with the aim that Israeli farmers will put pressure on the Israeli government.”
The tactic of “night confusions” has been used for a few years now.
As soon as a ceasefire ended Israel’s major 11-day assault on Gaza in May 2021, the attention of the world’s media shifted away from Gaza. By flying incendiary balloons after the attack, groups of young men brought Gaza back into the news.
And these “night confusions” are not confined to Gaza. Similar tactics have been employed by residents of Beita in the occupied West Bank.
The people of Beita have repeatedly thwarted efforts by Israeli settlers to establish an “outpost” on Palestinian land. An “outpost” is a colony which has not yet been officially approved by the Israeli authorities.
High cost
It is likely that we will continue to see protests of some form near Gaza’s boundary with Israel – now marked by a wall with a great deal of surveillance technology attached.
The costs of the protests will continue to be high in human terms.
In August last year, my friend Osama Dueij was shot by an Israeli sniper during a protest near the boundary. A few days later, Osama died from his injuries.
Osama had only been married to Duaa al-Outol for 29 days before his death.
Duaa is pregnant with his child. She has vowed to name the baby Osama.
“I am still in shock,” Duaa told me. “But I have begun to accept this shock. I have begun to accept that I will live with a new Osama. The new Osama will be my son, not my husband.”
Little more than a week after Osama died, Israel killed a neighbor of mine, Ahmad Musleh.
Ahmad was involved in a “night confusions” exercise when he was shot by an Israeli sniper.
Mahmoud Abu al-Aish, a close friend of Ahmad, was with him when he was killed.
“We were lying on the ground,” Mahmoud said. “Ahmad took out a lighter to light a cigarette. Suddenly, I found him drenched in blood and groaning with pain. Two minutes later, he died.”
The deaths of Osama and Ahmad once again illustrated that Palestinians put themselves in great danger when they confront our oppressors.
It is important that we discuss what tactics we should use frankly. I have thought long and hard on these matters and I believe that “night confusions” involving relatively small groups are preferable to the mass protests we saw during the Great March of Return.
“Night confusions” are, in my view, a greater nuisance for Israel. And that can only be a good thing.
Hamza Abu Eltarabesh is a journalist based in Gaza.
Israeli forces arrest a Palestinian in Jerusalem on 28 February 2022 [Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu Agency]
March 31, 2022
Two Palestinian students were arrested at Hebrew University of Jerusalem by off-duty Israel officers for singing traditional folk songs.
The students, Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem aged 19 and 20, were released after six hours of interrogation on "suspicion of conduct that could disturb the peace", reported Haartez.
Moreover, the students, who were listening and singing along to "Ala Dalouna," a folk song about the olive harvest and the spring foods of Palestinian farmers, were suspended from campus for six days.
In a statement released yesterday, the Israeli non-profit organisation, Ir Amim, said, "Yesterday, at the Hebrew University, two Palestinian students sat on campus and listened to music on the speaker. Suddenly a policeman came to them – who is not on duty, but a student at the University – and transferred them to investigation. The students were released, but received an instruction not to come to the campus in the next few days."
"Authorities love to flaunt that, over time, the number of Palestinian Jerusalem students studying at the Hebrew University is growing, but the University's generous response tells a different story," the organisation added.
According to Haaretz, the Israeli soldiers used their mobile phones to photograph the students before driving them to the police and confiscating their phones. The University security guards were aware of the situation, but refused to intervene.
The students were interrogated about their political views, what they think of Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and whether they pray and fast during the month of Ramadan.
According to a statement from the Israeli police, the officers who were studying at the University "noticed two students singing a song in Arabic that includes words of support for perpetrating acts of terror".
"The University should have stood behind its students and not allowed the police to enter the campus, as is customary all over the world," says Professor Daphna Golan of the University's Law School.
"Moreover, it should make it clear to policemen who study at the University that they can't use their position in order to arrest students. Couldn't they call security? Why was it necessary to arrest them on campus? We have to stop assuming that because we don't understand the words, it's a song of incitement."
Ir Amin also called on the University to stand behind the Palestinian students and announce unanimously that it does not receive unjustified arrests in the area.
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett urged on Wednesday Israeli citizens to arm themselves following a shooting in Tel Aviv, the British Guardian newspaper reported.
“What is expected of you, Israeli citizens? Vigilance and responsibility,” Bennett said in a video statement, according to The Guardian, adding, “Whoever has a gun license, this is the time to carry it.”
Five people were killed in a shooting in the Tel Aviv suburb of Bnei Brak in the third such attack within days.
The shooter, who was killed at the scene, was identified as 26-year-old Diaa Hamarsheh, from the Palestinian town of Ya’bad, near Jenin, in the occupied West Bank. The town of Jenin and its adjacent refugee camps have been regularly raided by the Israeli occupation army in recent months, leading to the death, wounding and arrest of many Palestinians.
Following the Bnei Brak shooting, a large number of Israeli soldiers attacked Jenin on Thursday morning, killing two young Palestinians and injuring many others.
Israeli soldiers also raided the town of Yabad, causing much destruction to the Hamarsheh’s family home. They also reportedly beat family members and neighbors.
In a separate but related incident, Israeli occupation forces killed 30-year-old Nidal Jumaa Jaafra near the occupied West Bank city of Bethlehem.
A decisive victory could transform the security of Europe
Apr 2nd 2022
When vladimir putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine he was not alone in thinking victory would be swift. Many Western analysts also expected Kyiv, the capital, to fall within 72 hours. Ukrainian valour and ingenuity confounded those assumptions. As the war enters its sixth week, the side that is contemplating victory is not Russia but Ukraine—and it would be a victory that redraws the map of European security.
Speaking to The Economist in Kyiv on March 25th, President Volodymyr Zelensky explained how people power is the secret to Ukraine’s resistance and why the war is shifting in his nation’s favour. “We believe in victory,” he declared. “This is our home, our land, our independence. It’s just a question of time.”
The battlefield is starting to tell the same story as the president. After several weeks in which the Russian assault stalled, Ukrainian forces have begun to counter-attack. On March 29th Russia said that it will “fundamentally cut back” the northern campaign. Its retreat may well be only tactical, but Russia has in effect conceded that, for the moment, it cannot take Kyiv.
Yet a lot of Ukraine remains in Russian hands, including the strip of land on the southern coast that the Russians now claim was their focus all along. A large chunk of the Ukrainian army, in the Donbas region, is vulnerable to encirclement. Nobody should underestimate Russian firepower. Even if its forces are depleted and demoralised they can dig in. Victory for Ukraine means keeping its Donbas brigades intact and using them to deny Russia a secure hold on occupied territory.
For that, Mr Zelensky told us, the West must impose tougher sanctions on Russia and supply more weapons, including aircraft and tanks. Sanctions deplete Russia’s ability to sustain a long war. Arms help Ukraine take back territory. But nato countries are refusing to provide him with what he wants. Given what is at stake, for the West as well as Ukraine, that betrays a reprehensible failure of strategic vision.
For Ukraine, a decisive victory would deter yet another Russian invasion. The more convincingly Ukraine can see off the Russian army, the more able it will be to resist the compromises that could poison the peace. Victory would also be the best basis for launching a post-war democratic state that is less corrupted by oligarchs and Russian infiltration.
The prize for the West would be almost as great. Not only could Ukraine invigorate the cause of democracy, but it would also enhance European security. During 300 years of imperialism, Russia has repeatedly been at war in Europe. Sometimes, as with Poland and Finland, it was the invader. Other times, as with Nazi Germany and Napoleonic France, it was seen as a lethal threat and itself fell victim to aggression.
A strong, democratic Ukraine would thwart Russia’s expansionism—because its borders would be secure. In the short term an angry, defeated dictator would be left in the Kremlin, but eventually Russia, following Ukraine’s example, would be more likely to solve its problems by reform at home rather than adventures abroad. As it did so, nato would become correspondingly less of a drain on budgets and diplomacy. The United States would be freer to attend to its growing rivalry with China.
Alas, much of the West seems blind to this historic chance. America is leading as it must, even if it vetoed sending Ukraine aircraft. But Germany is taking a short-term view of sanctions, balancing pressure from its allies and public opinion against the preservation of its trading links with Russia, the supplier of much of its oil and natural gas. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, claims to speak for Western allies when he argues that to supply the heavy weapons Ukraine needs would turn them into “co-belligerents”. Mr Zelensky accuses such countries of being either short-sighted or timorous. He is right.
Perhaps Germany doubts that Ukraine can leave behind its post-Soviet past. It is true that, after the Maidan protests established democracy in 2014, the country was unable to slough off its corruption and political inertia. And after being pounded by Russian artillery, Ukraine’s economy will be in ruins. However, the eu can help ensure that this time is different by starting work on Ukrainian membership right now. There could be no greater affirmation of the eu’s founding mission to create peace on a continent ravaged by war.
Bringing Ukraine’s governance in line with the eu’s will necessarily be lengthy and bureaucratic. The risk is that Brussels strings Ukraine along, as if Europe is deigning to let it join. Instead, the eu should welcome Ukraine eagerly, as eastern Europe was welcomed when it shook off Soviet domination in the early 1990s. That calls for generous aid to rebuild the economy, as well as political support and patience.
The other worry is Mr Macron’s: that nato will provoke Russia. From the start of this war, when he spoke of “consequences…such as you have never seen in your entire history”, Mr Putin has hinted that Western involvement could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. Wisely, the West has therefore been clear that nato will not fight against Russian forces—because, if they did, the war could spin out of control, with catastrophic results.
Yet backing away from Mr Putin’s nuclear-tinged threat entails risks, too. Limiting Ukrainian aid would abet Russia in imposing an unstable—and hence temporary—peace on Mr Zelensky. It would reward Mr Putin for his threats, setting up his next act of atomic aggression. By contrast, more powerful weapons and sanctions would mark a change in the degree of aid, but not its kind. And this week, facing Ukrainian success, Russia paused the campaign in the north, rather than escalate. For all those reasons, the best deterrence is for nato to stand up to Mr Putin’s veiled threat, and make clear that a nuclear or chemical atrocity would lead to Russia’s utter isolation.
Lift up your eyes
Conflict is unpredictable. History is littered with wars that were meant to be short but which dragged on for years. Ukraine has won the first phase of this one simply by surviving. Now it needs to advance, and so Mr Zelensky needs redoubled Western help. It would be terrible if what stood between a bad peace and a good one was a failure of imagination in the capitals of Europe.
John F. Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said the Defense Department believed that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had not been given an accurate account of his army’s failures in Ukraine.CreditCredit...Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times
WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.
The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.
Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.
“With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles' heels of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,” Mr. Blinken said. “And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.”
In a news conference on Wednesday afternoon, a Pentagon spokesman, John F. Kirby, said that the Defense Department believed that Mr. Putin has not had access to an accurate account of his army’s failures in Ukraine.
“We would concur with the conclusion that Mr. Putin has not been fully informed by his Ministry of Defense, at every turn over the last month,” Mr. Kirby said.
“If Mr. Putin is misinformed or uninformed about what’s going on inside Ukraine, it’s his military, it’s his war, he chose it,” Mr. Kirby said. “And so the fact that he may not have all the context — that he may not fully understand the degree to which his forces are failing in Ukraine, that’s a little discomforting, to be honest with you.”
Other American officials have said that Mr. Putin’s rigid isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly rebuke advisers who do not share his views have created a degree of wariness, or even fear, in senior ranks of the Russian military. Officials believe that Mr. Putin has been getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces, creating mistrust with his military advisers.
Mr. Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin’s ignorance showed “a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There “is now persistent tension” between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.
The American intelligence assessment also said that Mr. Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said.
The war continues to go poorly for Russian forces. Ukraine’s military has not only held its own but also begun counterattacking. Some U.S. officials believe that senior Russian officials are wary of delivering truthful assessments — potentially afraid that the messengers of bad news will be held responsible for the battlefield failures.
The Russian military’s stumbles have eroded trust between Mr. Putin and his Ministry of Defense. While Mr. Shoigu had been considered one of the few advisers Mr. Putin confided in, the prosecution of the war in Ukraine has damaged the relationship.
With evidence of Mr. Putin’s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials. The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.
What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret. But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders last year, U.S. intelligence officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin’s moves.
Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday, though American officials voiced skepticism that Russia was stopping its attacks as a peace gesture. Rather, some believe the moves are a further sign that Russia is adjusting its failing strategy. It is also possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses the U.S. Congress on March 16, 2022, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. Since the war began, he has been appealing to world leaders for more support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.J. Scott Applewhite /Pool/AFP via Getty Images
RACHEL TREISMAN-
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his iconic green T-shirt have become recognizable figures on the world stage in the weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine. The television star-turned-wartime president has used social media to boost his country's morale and won standing ovations at virtual addresses to governments around the world.
Now, a new survey puts a finer point on just how much support he has from the American public.
Some 72% of Americans have either some or a lot of confidence in Zelenskyy to do the right thing regarding international affairs, according to the Pew Research Center — a much higher number than for other world leaders, including U.S. President Biden.
Within that group, 33% have the highest level of confidence in Zelenskyy's leadership abilities. Older Americans are much more likely to hold those views than younger generations, as are those with more education (especially postgraduate degrees). There are faint divides along partisan lines, with Democrats and Democrat-leaners slightly more likely than Republicans and Republican-leaners to have confidence in Zelenskyy (80% vs. 67%).
Notably, Zelenskyy's domestic approval rating had dropped in the leadup to Russia's invasion, but a poll from inside Ukraine shows it has risen sharply in recent weeks.
Americans are more divided over Biden's handling of international affairs, with 48% saying they have confidence in this area and 52% having either not too much or none at all. Pew notes that this is a downturn since the start of his term, when that number was closer to 6 in 10 American adults. Three-quarters of Democrats and Democrat-leaners say they have confidence in Biden's international abilities, compared to just 16% of Republicans and Republican-leaners.
The survey also took Americans' temperatures on other world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
More than half of Americans have confidence in Macron and Scholz, while ratings for the Chinese leader remain unchanged from the past year at 15%.
Putin fared the worst of any head of state included in the survey, with only 6% of U.S. adults expressing confidence in him following his decision to invade Ukraine. Pew calls this an "all-time low" in surveys going back nearly two decades.
Some 92% of Americans have little or no confidence in the Russian leader's handling of world affairs, while 77% have none at all. The sentiment is shared nearly equally by Democrats and Republicans, even though Republicans have been much more likely to express confidence in Putin's leadership in recent years.
"Partisan divides are more evident when it comes to assessments of world leaders other than Putin," Pew says. "For instance, about two-thirds of Democrats voice confidence in Macron and Scholz, while only about four-in-ten Republicans say they have confidence in each European leader."
President Joe Biden seeks to Destroy Russia and Punish the Russian People: He Supported Savage Sanctions that Killed One Million Iraqi’s in the 1990s and Criminally Ignores the Plight of Post-War Afghanistan
by John Stanton-29 March 2022
So what does President Joe Biden want the sanctions imposed on Russia to do? Think back to the 1990s and what the US-NATO imposed no-fly zone and sanctions did to the people of Iraq? The results were almost 1 million Iraqi’s dead, according to the website GlobalIssues.org.
Over at truthout.org, Jake Batinga reported that President Joe Biden strongly supported those sanctions as a US Senator and recently has turned a blind eye to the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Afghanistan: “Senator Biden strongly supported the sanctions and advocated for even more aggressive policies toward Iraq. Biden was not then, and is not now, known for his humanitarian impulses or dovish foreign policy stances.”
Batinga also notes that:
“More Afghans are poised to die from US sanctions over the next few months alone than have died at the hands of the Taliban and US military forces over the last 20 years combined — by a significant margin. Yet, as journalist Murtaza Hussain recently wrote, US establishment politicians and intellectuals who decried the humanitarian crisis during the fall of Kabul are seemingly unbothered by imminent mass starvation, imposed by us.
The Biden administration — which routinely laments human rights violations perpetrated by China, Iran, Russia, and other adversaries — is ignoring desperate pleas from humanitarian organizations and UN human rights bodies, choosing instead to maintain policies virtually guaranteed to cause mass starvation and death of civilians, especially children. Yet it is important to note, and remember, that as a matter of policy, this is not particularly new; the US has often imposed harsh economic sanctions, causing mass civilian death. A previous imposition of sanctions resulted in one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes, one largely forgotten in mainstream historical memory.
In 1990, the US imposed sanctions on Iraq through the UN following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. These sanctions continued for more than a decade after Iraq withdrew from Kuwait, and had horrific humanitarian consequences eerily similar to the imminent mass starvation of Afghan civilians. The sanctions regime against Iraq — which began under President George H.W. Bush but was primarily administered by President Bill Clinton’s administration — froze Iraq’s foreign assets, virtually banned trade, and sharply limited imports.These sanctions crashed the Iraqi economy and blocked the import of humanitarian supplies, medicine, food, and other basic necessities, killing scores of civilians.”
BRIC’s Made of Straw
The BRIC nations, Brazil, Russia, India and China have been in the news lately and for good reason. There is talk, and talk is cheap of course, of China and Russia creating an alternative payment system to the US dollar dominated international payments system SWIFT.
Already Russia has joined China’s Cross Border Interbank Payment System Payment as an alternative to SWIFT, along with joining China’s UnionPay credit card system which serves as an alternative to Visa and Master Card who, along with dozens of other Western country businesses (Europe, USA plus Japan and South Korea), bolted Russia’s marketplace after its military operation got started in Ukraine in late February.
India apparently is trading with Russia in a rupee, ruble swap but that seems ad hoc, at best. And there is news of Saudi Arabia cutting a deal with China to use the yuan as an exchange currency. Brazil has enough internal problems to deal with: crime, disease, Amazon deforestation.
Chinese leaders must realize that if Russia falters in Ukraine which means it is unable to liberate the Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, gain international recognition of Crimea—and maintain territorial gains made on the coast of the Black and Azov Sea’s—and/or President Putin is removed from office and Russia destabilizes, the United States will chop up Russia into separate republics, steal its resources and cancel the billions in deals signed with China for oil, gas, and grains
The United States will bring the NATO military alliance to China’s doorstep and likely put on show trials in the International Criminal Court arguing that Putin and his general staff are war criminals, which would be utter nonsense given US policies and actions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen.
China is trying to placate the US because it still fears US economic and military power. Its party officials probably figure that they can keep building up the People’s Liberation Army, Navy, Air Force and Strategic nuclear capability and when there is enough firepower, will be able to challenge US dominance in the Pacific. But how?
The PLA forces have no modern combat experience to speak of and their plan seems to be; well, no plan at all. They are faced with the combined forces of the USA that are building new aircraft carriers, submarines and long distance B-21 bombers, along with upgrading all three legs of its nuclear TRIAD.
Which brings us back to Russia and the economic support it needs so that Biden’s sanctions don’t end up killing a million Russians. Because that is what Biden intends and his track record on supporting sanctions is disturbingly clear. When China looks at what the USA-NATO have done to the Russian economy, they are looking at their own future.
Hypocrisy
Joe Scalice at the World Socialist Website notes the hypocrisy of the USA-NATO and the compliant MSM Western media:
“The wars of aggression of Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump contained the accumulated evil of the torture in Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, the drone bombing of children at play, villages leveled by precision missiles and refugees drowned in the Mediterranean. Baghdad crumbled beneath the shock and awe of unstinting US bombing; Fallujah burned with white phosphorus.
The American mass media is complicit in these crimes. They never challenged the government’s assertions, but trumpeted its pretexts. They whipped up a war-frenzy in the public. Pundits who now denounce Putin were ferocious in demanding that the United States bomb civilians.
Thomas Friedman wrote in the New York Times in 1999 of the bombing of Serbia under Clinton, “It should be lights out in Belgrade: every power grid, water pipe, bridge, road and war-related factory has to be targeted… [W]e will set your country back by pulverizing you. You want 1950? We can do 1950. You want 1389? We can do 1389 too.” [Biden supported bombing Belgrade]
Biden labels Putin a war criminal in the midst of a new media hysteria. Never referring to the actions of the United States, never pausing for breath, the media pumps out the fuel for an ever-expanding war. Hubris and hypocrisy stamp every statement from Washington with an audacity perhaps unique in world history. Its hands bathed in blood up to the elbows, US empire gestures at its enemies and cries war crimes.”
Tactics
Indeed, the media has capitulated to the war propaganda narrative of the Biden Administration. The US MSM relies almost exclusively on Ukrainian sources for its error filled reporting. If you are reading the New York Times or the Washington Post, you aren’t getting the full story. Pro-Russia sites like Southfront, Newsfront, War Gonzo and others tell a different story. For example, the Retroville Mall destruction on March 21 was reported in the West as a wanton and random attack on a shopping place. In fact, the below-building parking lot was home to Ukrainian military vehicles clearly shown by a set of photos that appeared on Newsfront. Residential buildings are clearly being used by the Ukrainian forces to hide their weapons or launch anti-tank attacks from apartment building roofs or top floor apartments. That’s a tactic that makes sense. The Russians know that.
You’ve got to look at all the news sources, even the ones you don’t want to view, in order to be informed about this conflict.
John Stanton can be reached at jstantonarchangel@gmail.com
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