Almost ALL adults could be vaccinated by May - not just the over-50s - leaked letter to No 10 reveals, as Boris faces Tory demands to end lockdown by Spring despite Prof Lockdown's model warning of 130,000 more deaths

• No10 adviser Samuel Kasumu appeared to reveal a private target to jab nearly every over-18 by summer 
• The government has revealed that the first nine groups should have received Covid vaccines before May 6 
• The schedule emerged as the Cabinet Office confirmed local elections can go ahead in England on that date 
• Ministers are drawing up 'tentative' plans to gently relax the rules to allow open-air gatherings in the spring
• Proposals allowing outdoor mixing reflects scientific evidence that virus finds it harder spreading outside
• The Prime Minister's plans will also earmark dates for non-essential shops and pubs, which have been shut 

By JACK ELSOM and JAMES TAPSFIELD POLITICAL EDITOR FOR MAILONLINE-5 February 2021 

Almost all adults in Britain could receive their first vaccine dose by the end of May, a Downing Street official has suggested in a leaked letter to Boris Johnson. 

No10 adviser Samuel Kasumu appeared to inadvertently reveal a private target to jab nearly every over-18 by summer in his resignation statement today.

The letter, which was later withdrawn, outlined his 'view to leaving at the end of May, a time when we would hope the vast majority of the country's adults would have received the first jab.' 

That Mr Kasumu expressed such optimism about the pace of the vaccine rollout gives hope to millions of enjoying a summer with pared-back restrictions. 

Publicly ministers are more cautious and have mapped out a timeframe by which all over-50s have been offered the vaccine by May. 

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said today: 'Lots of things have got to go right to hit that goal, especially supply, which is the rate-limiting factor. 

'But I'm sure, working with the NHS and everybody else who is making this happen, that if we keep going at the pace we can, then we can make sure all the over-50s get the offer of a vaccine by May.' 

The over-50s are the ninth and final priority group for vaccines, meaning the 33million most vulnerable to the disease would have been inoculated. 

It reignited Tory backbench calls for lockdown restrictions to be abandoned when the UK reaches this point in the jab drive. 

Mark Harper, who chairs the Conservative lockdown-sceptic Covid Recovery Group (CRG), said: 'These top nine groups account for around 99 per cent of those that have died from Covid and about 80 per cent of hospital admissions. It will be almost impossible to justify having any restrictions in place at all by that point.'

But hopes of a swift ending of lockdown jarred with fresh modelling from Prof Neil Ferguson, who has warned of  a possible extra 130,000 deaths by June 2022.

 

 

 

Hancock says all over 50s will be offered a vaccine by May

 

The Imperial modelling, considered by SAGE on January 14, warned there is a danger of the NHS being swamped again if restrictions are eased too quickly 

Samuel Kasumu's letter to Boris Johnson in full:

Dear Prime Minister,

I am writing to formally tender my resignation. I have given this decision a lot of thought but think now is the right time to move on. Like many in the House, the chance to work in Her Majesty's government has been the ultimate privilege. I do not take for granted the opportunity to serve both my country, my party, and the Prime Minister. My particular gratitude will forever be with those that thought of me back in 2019.

The main thing that inspired me to say yes was the opportunity to carve out an offer for Britain's minority ethnic communities. One that was distinctively ours. One that spoke to individuals like they had agency over their lives. One that better explained inequality in Britain, and one that above all allowed people like me to feel like a valued part of Britain's island story.

It is well documented that black and Asian people are significantly less likely to vote Conservative, despite often having values that are aligned. The gains made under David Cameron in 2015 have been eroded in subsequent elections. Though we now have a coalition of voters to provide us with a much coveted majority, I fear for what may become of the party in the future by choosing to pursue a politics steeped in division.

Politics is of course an environment where there is always an opposition, an adversary. But I truly believe we have to consider others as best we can in our conduct. We can be firm, robust, but also civil and empathetic. I fear that empathy is a word not conducive to the culture that has been developed and the damage that is often caused by our actions is not much considered. As someone that has spent his whole adult life serving others, that tension has been at times unbearable. Last week, the actions of a Minister were concerning. I believe the Ministerial Code was breached. However, more concerning than the act, was the lack of response internally. It was not ok or justifiable, but somehow nothing was said. I waited, and waited, for something from the senior leadership team to even point to an expected standard, but it did not materialise.

There are things that make me so proud of my time at Number 10. We have put together a Commission on Race & Ethnic Disparities that has the potential to better explain an alternative world view on race relations in Britain. We set up the Windrush Working Group to deliver for the victims and have reformed the flawed compensation scheme that was built at pace by the previous administration. Moving the Social Mobility Commission closer to the centre will help the government to better explain what it means to 'level up'.

Minister Zahawi said that his current job will be the most important of his life. I would say that the work I have been doing on the vaccine rollout is also the most important thing that I have been involved in. We are in a battle against misinformation and mistrust that could result in more lives being lost than is necessary. I would therefore like to continue leading on this work from the centre, with the view to leaving at the end of May, a time when we would hope the vast majority of the country's adults would have received the first jab. There are two candidates that I believe are best suited to carry on the work that I have been involved with

• The coronavirus R rate in England is confirmed to be below one for the first time since July, SAGE said today, the first time in six months Government scientists have been certain the outbreak is shrinking; 
• Ministers have defended 'quarantine hotel' plans not being up and running until February 15 saying they take 'time to prepare';
• The government is working on vaccine passports to save summer holidays with Greece thought to be ready to waive restrictions if people can prove they have received jabs; 
• Covid-19 vaccines being rolled out across the UK are safe, with the 'overwhelming majority' of suspected side-effects being mild, the regulator has said; 
• The average daily vaccination rate has risen to 430,532 in the last seven days, equal to more than three million jabs a week; 
• A study said the UK could reach herd immunity by July; 
• Some ministers are concerned that the PM's plan to ease restrictions on a national basis would slow Britain's escape from lockdown;
• The Treasury was forced to deny reports that Rishi Sunak is growing frustrated with the slow pace of the exit; 
• Ministers faced calls to 'think again' about the decision to keep schools closed until March 8 after Scotland said it would reopen them on February 22; 
• A new NHS hospital could be named after Captain Sir Tom Moore;  
• European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen came under mounting pressure over the EU's faltering vaccine rollout, with Germany's vice-chancellor reportedly calling her efforts 'really s***';
• It emerged that passengers on public transport in London could be required to wear medical grade masks.

Mr Kasumu, 33, is an adviser to the Prime Minister on ethnic minorities and had tried to quit before withdrawing his resignation.

The BBC reports that he considered walking away over fears the Conservative Party was pursuing a 'politics steeped in division' - but was convinced to stay by vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi. 

His bullishness that a majority of adults could receive a vaccine by May hints that ministers are being publicly cautious not to overpromise - a frequent charge during the pandemic.

Mr Johnson is set to unveil his road map out of lockdown towards the end of the month, with hopes the return of schools from March 8 can be followed by allowing mixing outdoors, with bars and restaurants freed up over the summer. 

There was a barrage of other good news today, with the R number dipping below the critical level of one, research showing the AstraZeneca jab seems effective against the Kent variant, and the UK regulator saying it was not detecting significant side-effects. 

Another 19,114 people were reported as testing positive, down a third on last Friday, and the grim daily death toll was down 18 per cent week on week at 1,014. 

Another 484,596 vaccine doses were administered in 24 hours, maintaining the impressive pace - with just under 11million people now inoculated.  

However, the competing pulls that Mr Johnson faces were underlined this afternoon as the government published stark modelling from Prof Ferguson's team at Imperial College.  

Considered by SAGE on January 14, the paper assumed that there will be a phased easing of lockdown between March and July, and warned that a 'rapid ramp-up' of vaccinations to 'at least' 3million doses a week is 'critical to avoid exceeding national hospital capacity after the current wave'.

The government is currently maintaining around that level. But the report added: 'This would still lead to an additional 130,800 (103,200 - 167,600) deaths between now and June 2022.'

The Imperial team suggested that its findings meant 'a more cautious approach to gradually lifting (lockdown measures) may need to be considered than the ones modelled in this report.' 

But Professor Lockdown's modelling appears to be based on the assumption that about 50,000 Covid patients would be in hospital by mid-February, before dropping towards the end of the month. In reality, the figures never exceeded 40,000 and have now dropped to about 30,000 already. 

Another equally-pessimistic study submitted to SAGE warned curbs will need to be in place until at least September or there could be a 'significant' rebound in infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

The undated modelling, done by various SAGE epidemiologists from universities around the country, said the highly-transmissible Kent variant would tear through the unvaccinated population over summer if the lockdown was lifted completely.

Mr Hancock confirmed the May vaccination target on a visit to Gatwick Airport this evening, although he stressed 'a lot of things have to go right'. 

But he struck a cautious tone on lockdown saying it was 'too early' to make decisions. 'The NHS is still under pressure and we have all got to do out bit to keep these case rates going down,' he said. 

Number 10 adviser Samuel Kasumu (right) appeared to inadvertently reveal private targets to jab all over-18s by summer in his resignation statement to the Prime Minister (left) today 

Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed the May vaccination target on a visit to Gatwick Airport this evening, although he stressed 'a lot of things have to go right'

 

 

 

King's College London 's Covid Symptom Study estimates there were 20,360 Brits falling unwell with the disease every day last week, down 29 per cent on the 28,645 the seven days prior

 

Ministers plan 'vaccine passports' in boost for summer holidays 

Ministers are believed to be thrashing out plans for 'vaccine passports'.  

The Times reports that documents could be provided for British holidaymakers to prove they have been inoculated against coronavirus.  

It comes after several European countries including Greece, Spain, Malta and Denmark have signalled support for such a plan.

The Foreign Office, the Department for Transport and The Department for Health and Social Care are said to be working on a range of measures to enable a return to foreign travel – including  the certificates to prove tourists have received a jab.   

Cycles of lockdown has largely put paid to overseas leisure trips

But Government officials  are reportedly in talks with Athens about the prospect of tourists heading to Greece this summer. 

As optimism rises about the vaccination programme, the PM is preparing to bring back outdoor mixing an

Read More