The chart that cost us freedom: PM pushes unlocking to July 19 but vows it will be 'terminal point' after Whitty reveals 61% spike in north-west hospital cases and scientists warn India variant is up to 80% more infectious and may cause 500 deaths a DAY

• Boris Johnson announcing delay to Freedom Day by a month - to the fury of business leaders and Tory MPs
• The Prime Minister has confirmed that schedule for the June 21 Freedom Day will be pushed back to July 19 
• Government scientists have warned that the Indian - or Delta - variant is up to 80 per cent more infectious
• Modelling suggests that waiting for vaccines to be rolled out further in UK will save 'thousands' of lives 

Giving the bad news at a Downing Street briefing, the PM defied fury from Tory MPs and the hospitality industry to insisted he cannot press ahead until more people are double-jabbed

By JAMES TAPSFIELD, POLITICAL EDITOR FOR MAILONLINE and STEPHEN MATTHEWS HEALTH EDITOR and DAVID WILCOCK, WHITEHALL CORRESPONDENT 14 June 2021

Boris Johnson tonight dramatically delayed 'Freedom Day' by another four weeks to prevent up to 500 deaths a day after scientists warned the Indian variant could be 80 per cent more infectious.

Giving the bad news at a Downing Street briefing, the PM defied fury from Tory MPs and the hospitality industry to insisted he cannot press ahead until more people are double-jabbed.

He said the disease cannot be 'eliminated' and the country will have to learn to 'live with it'. But he said he needed to 'give the NHS a few more crucial weeks'. 

'I think it is sensible to wait a little longer,' he said. 'Now is the time to ease off the accelerator.' 

However, Mr Johnson added that he viewed the new date as a 'terminal point' for lockdown, with all restrictions able to be lifted for good.  

The shift came after Government experts told the premier that the Indian - or Delta strain - is far more transmissible than the Kent version, while single doses of vaccines are thought to be less effective in countering it.

Allowing the relaxation in England could put millions of people who have yet to have a jab at risk, as well as those who have only had one dose and elderly people who remain vulnerable.

Chief medic Chris Whitty, flanking the PM as usual alongside Sir Patrick Vallance, told the briefing that hospitalisations had risen 61 per cent in the North West in just a week. 'The assessment of risk has fundamentally shifted,' he said. 

The move means that current rules will essentially remain in place until July 19 - with social distancing in force in bars and restaurants, and the edict to work from home where possible staying.

At the same time the vaccine rollout will be intensified, with dosing intervals reduced to eight weeks. As a result around two thirds of adults could have been double-jabbed by July 19. 

Government experts say hospitalisations should be slashed by between half and a third as a result, preventing 'thousands' of deaths. Modellers have indicated that otherwise hospital admissions could hit 2,000, with 250 or even 500 deaths a day possible.  

In an effort to sweeten the pill for people who have been putting their lives on hold for more than a year, there will be some easing on the rules for weddings. The 30-person limit on services and receptions will be abandoned - but venues will still be restricted by how many they can accommodate while respecting social distancing rules.

Dancing will also still be out in another blow to couples hoping to celebrate. 

In another sop to critics, Mr Johnson offered a 'break clause' with another review of the situation in two weeks' time - although officials warned that it is very unlikely to conclude restrictions can be eased quicker. 

And the premier was adamant that there will be no further slippage from the new July 19 timetable, suggesting the full 'Freedom Day' will happen at that point. One aide said almost all the 'benefit' from additional jabs will have accrued by then.

'As things stand now... I am confident we won't need more than four weeks and will not need to go beyond July 19,' Mr Johnson said, although he did add that he could not rule out 'the possibility that there is some new variant that's far more dangerous that kills people in a way that we currently cannot foresee or understand'.  

But Mr Johnson's own MPs are livid at the move, with fears running high that this delay is only the first and lockdown might not be dropped at all.

He will face a Commons showdown with them on Wednesday, with the new regulations requiring a debate and a vote. 

Although they are certain to go through with Labour support, the scale of the rebellion from Tory MPs will show the level of anger he is facing.

Vice chairman of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbench MPs Sir Charles Walker said that 'existing isn't living' as he raised concerns that restrictions will stay in place all summer. 

In other developments: 

• The UK has reported another 7,742 coronavirus infections - up more than a third on last Monday - and three more deaths. Nearly 30million people have had two doses of vaccine; 
• There are no plans to change the furlough scheme, despite the fact employers will have to start making bigger contributions next month; 
• A YouGov poll has found 71 per cent of English adults back delaying the June 21 unlocking, while just 24 per cent are opposed; 
• Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has voiced fury that Mr Johnson is announcing the decision at the Downing Street press briefing instead of to the House, saying he wants a face-to-face meeting with the PM; 
• Extra support to tackle a rise in cases of the Delta variant, which was first recorded in India, has been announced for more areas of the North West and Birmingham; 
• Andrew Lloyd Webber said a delay to the exit roadmap risked bankrupting the entire arts industry;
• Ministers are pushing ahead with trials for the use of so-called 'Covid passports' for big cultural and sporting events, but will not make them compulsory for pu

Boris Johnson announces delay to 'freedom day' during conference

Health Secretary Matt Hancock talks about delaying of 'freedom day'

 

One chart presented by chief medic Chris Whitty today showed that hospitalisations have increased 61 per cent in a week in the North West

 

Modelling has suggested that the timing of the reopening could make a major difference to the scale of hospital admissions

Analysis by Warwick University modellers showed how daily Covid hospital admissions could hit up to 2,500 a day, if June 21 went ahead. Scientific estimates also showed how the curve of admissions would peak at just over 1,000 a day if Freedom Day was pushed back to July 19. The team also looked at what would happen if the final unlocking took place on August 23

Modelling submitted to SAGE showed how NHS hospitals could fare in the event of a third wave (top charts), and also looked at how many people could die each day (bottom charts). Warwick University researchers made their estimates (left) based on the assumption that the Indian variant is 56 per cent more transmissible, and that fully vaccinated people are given 90 per cent protection against hospital admission. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine researchers (right) used similar figures to come to their conclusions

The Warwick team (left) and LSHTM academics (right) also looked at how many people would get infected every day (top) and how many infected patients would be admitted to hospital (bottom)

Extra support to tackle a rise in cases of the Delta variant, which was first recorded in India, has been announced for more areas of the North West and Birmingham. The additional support will be introduced in Birmingham, Blackpool, Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Chester, Liverpool City Region and Warrington, a spokesman for the Department of Health and Social Care said on Monday. The package, which is the same as was announced for Greater Manchester and Lancashire last week, will see more support for surge testing, tracing, isolation support and maximising vaccine uptake after a number of cases of the Delta variant were detected in the areas

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