Sri Lanka: Quo Vadis, 2022? Where is the country heading to? 

 

Friday, 25 March 2022 

It is clear that the Gover-nment does not have a clue apart from the presidential injunctions for more discipline, sacrifice and unity on the one hand and the Panglossian view that everything will be alright in the end, on the other. The hope that tourism will improve and that India and China will chip in to bail us out is proving to be grossly insufficient to ward off the inevitable. Missing in the pathetic mix of incompetence, mismanagement and the gross lack of empathy or sympathy for public suffering is the one thing that governments are supposed to be responsible for and the one thing on which they stand or fall – policy. 

As for the latter, the incoherent babble from the Government’s ranks has only fuelled the invective and anger of the masses. Committees are being set up to establish more committees. Chinese banks are demanding payment and the conditions for Indian assistance have yet to be revealed in full. Exams were almost postponed indefinitely for want of paper! People are dying in queues for fuel and every other day there are peaceful demonstrations by the citizenry demanding that the Government go. Buying time for things to turn out okay has passed. 

All available analyses clearly state that if we are to get an agreement with the IMF – it is not at all clear as to whether this will be the case – it will take at least six months to kick in. In the meantime, and thereafter, things will get worse before they get any better. The country is paying for its egregious errors of 2019 and 2020 at the polls – we are being taken deeper and deeper into bankruptcy by a president who does not have the foggiest idea about economics and no more experience of governance than that of a platoon commander. Where are the Viyathmaga denizens of expertise and experience?  Actually, who are the economists in the ranks of government?

What we have is an economic crisis and a political crisis. Together they make up the crisis of governance in Sri Lanka. The economic and the political cannot be treated separately. There has to be a clear strategic vision of recovery from this disaster – it will need firm and decisive political leadership backstopped by a clear and coherent policy of reform and rejuvenation. Quite frankly, this regime, on the basis of demonstrable evidence so far, is just nowhere near up to it, although with a 6.9 million voter base and a two-third majority in Parliament it was ideally placed to communicate this to the people. 

All it seems to be concerned about is clinging onto power for dynastic survival and the asinine obsession with not losing face, even when everything suggests that they are fast losing more than that. Gamanpilla and Weerawansa’s exit from the Cabinet finally blew the lid off the rumblings of misgivings and disunity within. Much needed stability and resolve within government is certainly not assured. It may not collapse tomorrow or the day after, but it will collapse unless there is radical reform in policy terms and strong communication of the imperative of reform to the people at large. 

Can this regime explain to us why we have taken so long to go to the IMF – if that is what we are now set on doing – what the IMF report says about the economy, what sacrifices will going to the IMF entail and why? The public’s expectation of any answers to these questions from this regime has passed. It is now simply – Sir Go Home! 

This of course is not something he will do voluntarily because this is something he just cannot do. It will end the dynasty. The Finance Minister brother or the Sports Minister nephew as possible successors, will not turn clocks back to 2019 and 2020 when 6.9 million enthusiastically welcomed Gotabaya to power and gave him a two-thirds majority in Parliament. One is not popular and the other is yet to be taken seriously. Without the power of office, there is no immunity and those who believe in accountability are not likely to give up. 

The Rajapaksas have to win the next national elections for their political survival and security. Consequently, the next elections are likely to be marked by violence, threat and intimidation, perhaps even on a scale not seen recently. The Army – those who are willing – there is no certainty that the entire institution is – and ex-army may well be used as integral parts of the Rajapaksa campaign. The elections too could be conducted in a context of ethnic upheaval and turmoil – factors that have worked in Rajapaksa’s favour in the past. Alternatively, if their two main sources of legitimacy, those in robes and in uniform, consider the incumbent an electoral liability, would they replace him with a strong man in civilian garb? General Shavendra Silva, perhaps?

What is the Opposition’s response should any of this come to pass? The two demonstrations outside the President’s Office were successes in terms of numbers. They amply highlighted the anger of the masses. There are questions however. What is the real purpose/objective of these mass demonstrations? How long can they be sustained? Will the people lose patience if there is no change and things indeed get worse?

The Leader of the Opposition has called for the President to go. According to him, some three Middle Eastern countries have promised assistance to a government led by him to lead us to recovery. Clearly Mr. Premadasa is relying on massive public discontent and rage to make the Rajapaksa presidency unsustainable. President Rajapaksa however, does not need to hold a presidential election until next year and then too only if he wants to stand for re-election. A general election could be held thereafter.

The key issue with the Opposition too, is one of unity. Can the SJB and the JVP constituencies come together in a broad opposition alliance and under one leader? The JVP may well feel that their leader can take the fight to the Rajapaksas and even win and on that momentum fare well in a subsequent general election. However, there are “ifs” and “buts” to this calculation. What is the JVP economic policy? Moreover, will the electorate at large forgive them for the violence and suffering of 1988-89?  

Does the UNP still have a constituency? And if they do, where do they fit in? After all, Mr. Wickremasinghe’s take on the current situation makes a load of sense and should be integrated into the Opposition policy platform. 

The Opposition has to identify a clear, feasible strategic objective as far as the demonstrations are concerned and moreover, a policy and plan of action, should it succeed. There should be no dithering – once in power it has to hit the road running and implement the much-needed reforms. First in order of priority should be the re-enactment of the 19th Amendment. 

Can Sajith Premadasa, Ranil Wickremasinghe, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Champika Ranawaka and any other wannabe presidential candidates agree on this?

If they do not, we will descend further into chaos. Remember, Greece had seven governments in five years and the Sri Lankan military is promising the people a future of prosperity.