Road to sustainable recovery: The results-focused, evidence-informed approach

The road to prosperity and social equity may not be smooth and straight. But it can be traversed if we as a nation are committed to it – Pic by Shehan Gunasekara

 Tuesday, 26 April 2022

Sri Lanka is in a seemingly inevitable disaster economically and socially. Yet we can turn this adversity into a major stepping stone to a robust self-reliant economy and a fair and just society. We can be a nation that could help other countries at times of critical need as we are facing today. Other nations have built themselves. This article outlines a proposal for a national plan that could meet requirements for acceptance by funding and lending institutions.

The road to prosperity and social equity may not be smooth and straight. But it can be traversed if we as a nation are committed to it. Two major commitments are necessary. First, we must act above political or individual gain and aim for the common good. Second, we must adopt proven and scientific principles of development. This article outlines two important principles: results-focused development interventions and evidence-informed decision making. These principles are widely used in successful development efforts and are advocated by United Nations Agencies, the World Bank, funds, and foundations.

Results-focused development

Currently, our development programs are not aimed at achieving specific results. Every development intervention needs to be fully and directly focused on achieving results for people. Nothing less. Every program, project, policy, or activity must clearly and specifically lead to a result. So, what is the result? The result is a change in the wellbeing of people. It happens when an existing problem is removed. For example, currently, the country is in debt. The expected result is reduced or a manageable debt burden.

Another example of a problem is after five years of schooling, most children do not achieve the expected levels of learning. A result could be “80% improvement in mathematics learning achievements of grade five students in five years.” Results must be conceptualised and articulated in measurable terms.

How do we achieve results? We achieve results through development interventions, such as a program, project, policy, strategy, or even an activity. To produce results, development interventions must meet specific criteria. First, they must be well planned. The exact problem to be resolved must be understood and clearly articulated. If this is not done, a solution cannot be found. Second, the causes of the problem must be understood. Then the development intervention is designed to remove or reduce those causes. Once causes start disappearing the problem starts reducing. We must find the causes of the problem of debt. Find ways to remove them in a prioritised manner, if needed.

Finding causes cannot usually be done by one person. It must be done collectively by people who have knowledge, experience, insights, and most importantly, people on the ground. A problem is rarely caused by a single cause but by multiple causes. Unless all causes are addressed the problem persists. For example, if a person is ill with a heart attack and a fatal liver disease both diseases must be treated to save their lives. Ways or strategies to reduce the causes must also be determined collectively. Such strategies must be supported by theory and backed by evidence. For example, if increasing the interest rates is a strategy to reduce the debt, it must be known which cause the higher rates was addressed. It is also necessary to know whether this strategy has worked before and in what contexts. 

A serious oversight in our planning processes has to do with numerous assumptions. Suppose it is assumed that the banks would invest the savings and generate income to pay the increased profits. This assumption might not hold. Therefore, it is necessary to ensure that the assumption is likely to hold. If other things must happen for it to hold, then those other things must be made to happen. Otherwise, it would be a killer assumption, like going to London in December without warm clothes, assuming it won’t be cold. Therefore, it is necessary to make all assumptions explicit and monitor the assumptions for signs of not holding. Development interventions must also be monitored to ensure that milestones are reached. Most importantly, if milestones are not reached, corrective action must be taken. If the deposits are not invested, then action must be taken to promote investment.

Development interventions are never perfect. They must be continually improved for greater effectiveness, efficiency, sustainability and impactfulness. For this, there is a powerful tool: evaluation. Evaluative knowledge is the power to achieve success. Development interventions must be periodically evaluated. That is, checking whether the right things are being done. This does not mean that costly and elaborate academic evaluations must always be carried out. But evaluative activities can yield critical warnings and confirm progress. Lack of understanding of the purpose and value of evaluation has led to misconceptions of evaluation. Lack of evaluative actions to ensure that development interventions yield results for people is a cause of massive failure, goalpost shifting, and wastage of resources. In the interest rate example, it would be essential to take some evaluative actions as early as possible. Such evaluative actions could help to make a great success of this intervention which might otherwise be an unanticipated failure.

 

Five-step process for successful recovery

A five-step process can be implemented to address the present crisis as listed below.

1. Identify the few priority problems that must be addressed immediately

Identifying nationally important problems can be done at the national level. For example, improving the economy could be one and enhancing the wellbeing of people could be the other. These have to be defined so that the change can be measured or verified. This means there must be a measurable yardstick of success, e.g. Gross Domestic Product, farmers’ security, foreign exchange earnings, level of abuse of resources, the relevance of tertiary education, quality of early child development, level of mental health. 

2. Assign every ministry to make a defined contribution to the economy and the wellbeing of people

Each ministry can define its contribution to the two agreed-upon national results within its mandate and capacity. For example, the ministry of Higher Education may decide they can earn foreign exchange by offering cutting edge, affordable, and relevant education to students outside the country.

3. Require every ministry to draft a plan for implementation

To achieve the planned results, it is necessary to describe the status now, what’s causing it not to progress, and what strategies can be used to overcome the obstacles. The Ministry of Education, for example, must set targets for foreign exchange to earn, implementation should be focused on those targets, the milestones need to be monitored for corrective action, and evaluative activities need to be used for learning and improvement. 

The implementation plan should identify levels of results, responsibilities for achieving them, a time frame for implementation, and resources. It is important that the implementing agency creatively find the resources and not depend on external resources.

4. Institutionalise a system for reviewing the progress of contributions monthly

The absence of effective review or monitoring is a well-established reason for development failure. The regular progress review meetings in the government could be modified to be results-focused so that results are tracked, monitoring systems are effective and evaluative activities generate knowledge that is put into use for continuous improvement of the interventions.

5. Establish evaluative mechanisms for learning and continuous improvement

A policy directive for simple evaluative activities and implementation guidelines could help establish an effective evaluation mechanism. This could lead to an evaluative culture that is very influential in making development programs effective, efficient, sustainable, and impactful. Evaluative knowledge helps achieve success and showcase success with evidence. 

 

Opportunities and challenges 

By implementing this five-step process, every public entity would make a defined contribution to the national economy and a selected aspect of the people’s lives. The implementation plans, the progress of implementation and the results achieved can be made public on the respective websites of public entities as an appreciative action. The media can provide forums for regular appreciation of each ministry’s efforts and provide support. Most importantly, these forums can promote cohesion or synergy and harmony in different programs by bringing the relevant authorities together for mutual support and cross-fertilisation of ideas. 

Implementing this program has many challenges. It requires some knowhow, discipline, political will, and supporting systems. It is worth meeting these challenges because it follows modern-day understanding of achieving development results. Knowhow is available and can be obtained, as needed, from development partners. Capacity exists in our public service. It needs to be enabled. Let’s start with the most priority results for survival at this time and expand gradually.

A critical requirement for the success of such an initiative is discipline. The discussions, public dialogues, and media forums need to set a positive though critical tone. Such dialogues could use the ministry development plans as the basis for discussion. The discussion looks to assess and appreciate progress. Where necessary, strengthen inter-program links, and support. Let our speech be directed towards promoting efforts and appreciation, not criticising people. Let our suggestions be backed by robust evidence and good intentions. Let’s remember what reflects wisdom is listening, not speaking. 

The collection of the ministerial plans could be consolidated into a national development plan, especially a plan that demonstrates our commitment and capacity to achieve sustainable development. It could also be a plan that donors would consider for assistance, not just loans, because the plan follows the necessary criteria: results-based, evidence-based planning and implementation. Sri Lanka could be a beacon of light if we reach our own goals through our efforts. Opportunities exist and can be created by enabling the energies of the youth and utilising the wisdom of the seniors through results-focused, evidence-informed development 

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